Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 111.275669 127.180058 145.039025 166.670828 192.285566 221.798808 258.592871
2026-01-25 89.593701 109.628391 134.065664 166.393151 208.523296 262.248215 337.051550
2026-02-01 74.605165 95.928944 123.571935 162.658238 217.528799 293.404423 409.139750
2026-02-08 64.044122 85.614149 114.958053 158.742595 224.097880 320.871551 480.654946
2026-02-15 56.262167 77.666150 107.977698 155.313677 229.806150 346.947898 554.673148
2026-02-22 53.346527 76.026278 109.460897 164.144568 255.025896 407.274321 698.838900
2026-03-01 49.222345 72.004714 106.722369 165.743708 268.488604 450.297766 823.020177
2026-03-08 45.865976 68.708677 104.591003 167.819096 282.789082 497.156124 966.849233
2026-03-15 42.576932 65.129074 101.518985 167.730964 292.973481 538.005516 1109.489235
2026-03-22 41.306908 64.644584 103.428124 176.551231 321.139651 619.996539 1369.695540
2026-03-29 39.889014 63.741219 104.468207 183.837465 347.471775 703.961475 1664.396046
2026-04-05 38.346853 62.455011 104.655374 189.457406 371.286423 787.792938 1990.812884
2026-04-12 36.294914 60.171029 102.949419 191.441381 388.434134 862.192969 2328.428113
2026-04-19 34.150011 57.530903 100.317481 191.210233 400.706129 928.142542 2672.483973
2026-04-26 31.728629 54.174129 95.985276 186.827181 402.523599 967.543202 2948.974239
2026-05-03 29.529988 51.048819 91.799016 182.213947 402.987165 1003.564973 3232.845434
2026-05-10 27.612469 48.298500 88.090261 178.172502 404.160403 1042.038445 3547.480287
2026-05-17 27.322683 48.639048 90.619253 188.593173 444.751168 1210.388919 4499.893520
2026-05-24 26.223341 47.302095 89.557210 190.482313 462.878641 1314.278855 5244.749516
2026-05-31 25.257511 46.152073 88.774145 192.934782 483.135564 1432.204229 6152.189963
2026-06-07 24.149097 44.628127 87.046590 192.830635 496.024988 1529.016824 7032.310757
2026-06-14 23.945328 44.941333 89.354679 203.264324 542.952341 1769.557082 8993.909440
2026-06-21 23.589779 44.906105 90.878239 211.896766 586.477659 2016.350815 11312.987641